[Note] The end of capitalism by D. Harvey

Capitalism will never fall on its own. it will have to be pushed. The accumulation of capital will never cease. it will have to be stopped. The capitalist class will never willingly surrender its power. it will have to be dispossessed.

Source: Harvey, D. (2010). The enigma of capital and the crisis of capitalism. London: Oxford University Press., p. 260

[Note] Those " Creative Cities" created by unproductive rentiers by D. Harvey

What is now so striking is the increasing power of the unproductive and parasitic rentiers, not simply the owners of land and all the resources that reside therein, but the owners of assets, the all-powerful bondholders, the owners of independent money power (which has become a paramount means of production in its own right), and the owners of patents and property rights that are simply claims on social labour freed of any obligation to mobilise that social labour for productive uses. The parasitic forms of capital are now in the ascendant. We see their representatives gliding through the streets in limousines and populating all the upmarket restaurants and penthouses in all the major global cities of the world – New York, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, São Paulo, Sydney ...

[Note]沒有工會保障的影視產業工人

根據1987年5月6日發行的Variety的報導，美國勞動部統計顯示，在主張「就業優先」（right-to-work）*的州裡，從事影視產業工作者的平均工資，比在不主張「就業優先」的州的同業，少了83%。而工資外補貼（fringe benefits）也有類似狀況，「就業優先」的州，工資外補貼僅占工資的3%，而南加州則有32%的水準（Will Tusher, "HIgh labor costs hold key to runway filming," Daily Variety, 5 june 1990, 3, 17)。

非常驚人的差距，不過通常這些州的經濟狀況本來就不妙，整個平均工資應該也很低才對。

[Analysis]國片發行商的力量

電影拍完後，會向官方申請映演許可。但拿到了映演許可後不一定就能上映，得看發行商夠不夠力去搶戲院檔期。若比較國片、港中片與其他進口片的a.核准片數, 和b.最終放映片數，兩者相除，或可說台灣發行商實在很沒力，如果三類電影的品質沒有太大的變化。



值得注意的是，港中片在2008年後，上映的能力突然抬升了。為什麼呢？

[Analysis]'Entertainment industry is recession-proof'

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/entertainment-industry-is-recession-proof/articleshow/3856935.cms

Entertainment business generally does well during a downturn. Even this time, the so-called recession-proof industry appears to be doing just fine. Ajay Bijli, chairman and managing director of PVR Ltd, discusses with ET the impact of economic slowdown and credit crunch on the multiplex industry. 

What is the impact of the slowdown on the entertainment industry? 

I, like some of my peers in the industry, hold the view that the entertainment industry is largely recession proof. It is mostly dependent on the supply of good content. At the beginning of the year, during the Indian Premier League (IPL), production houses delayed releasing their movies, that was when footfalls in multiplexes witnessed a drop. Again during the terror attacks in different cities, movie buffs didn't feel safe enough to go to multiplexes. But in the last few months it has become clear that whenever good movies have been released, movie buffs have come to the multiplexes. The recent release Rab Ne Bana De Jodi is a case in point. 

I think it's not economic slowdown that has affected sales of tickets, it is the quality of content which governs footfalls generated in the multiplex. Fortunately, India is still a growth story and to a certain extent the slowdown is more psychological than real. Hence, I do not see the slowdown, as I would like to call it, having any impact on the entertainment industry. I believe that the Indian entertainment industry will continue to grow in healthy double digits. 

But has the slowdown affected the multiplex growth plans and the deals that are struck between real estate developers and multiplex operators? 

There have been instances in recent times where some multiplex players have walked out of deals that they struck with real estate players for an amount which was not economically feasible for them anymore. This has, in fact, led to a correction in rentals. As far as PVR is concerned, we have accelerated our pace and are now seriously looking at markets and opportunities, which were unaffordable earlier. Newer formats such as revenue-sharing with developers are also in the offing. I'm sure if mall construction is delayed, multiplex expansion plans could be delayed as well. So it all depends on how adversely affected the real estate developer is with whom one has an agreement. 

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[News-THR] Hollywood Conglomerates Gear Up for Quarterly Earnings Reports

With big entertainment stocks having declined early in 2014, investors are looking for fourth-quarter earnings season for Hollywood conglomerates to help shed a light on the state of TV advertising trends, which underperformed for some big sector players late last year.

And companies' outlook for 2014 will also be in the spotlight early in the year, with some analysts also expecting conference call questions about possible pay TV consolidation amid continued chatter about a possible combination of Charter Communications and Time Warner Cable.

"The first time in recent memory, some media executives, blaming softer scatter and weak ratings trends, publicly talked down fourth-quarter advertising expectations," MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson said in a recent preview. "While these comments were made back at an investor conference in December, it seems the market only started paying attention when the calendars turned to 2014…Year-to-date, we have seen sharp losses at many of the mostly cable-network centric names that are impacted by both poor ratings and weak scatter demand."

PHOTOS: Sun Valley Scene: Rupert Murdoch, Brian Roberts, Brian Grazer Arrive at Allen & Co. Retreat

Among other big Hollywood stocks, CBS Corp.'s stock closed 2013 at $63.74, but finished Monday's trading session at $58.18. Time Warner shares are down from $69.72 to $62.88. And Walt Disney's stock over the same period went from $76.40 to $72.25.

UBS analyst John Janedis recently lowered his fourth-quarter TV network unit ad forecasts for the likes of 21st Century Fox, Time Warner and Viacom.

"Early first-quarter scatter volumes appear to have picked up, with [ad prices] unchanged, up in the mid single digits versus the upfront," Janedis said in his earnings season preview. "The tone feels better, but we expect the Olympics to have a…drag on first-quarter ad growth."

Nathanson echoed that, suggesting big entertainment stocks may remain under pressure near-term. "We think that first-quarter advertising and ratings trends could be negatively impacted by the Winter Olympics on NBC, which should gain share of viewers and dollars," he wrote. "As such, the near-term downward slide in media valuations could likely continue until earnings revision trends improve. Fourth-quarter results will likely not provide that relief."

Here is a quick look at key trends expected to shape the latest earnings reports of big Hollywood companies.

NBCUniversal
NBCUniversal owner Comcast on Tuesday morning will open the quarterly earnings season for Hollywood conglomerates.

Macquarie Securities analyst Amy Yong predicts quarterly broadcast and cable networks operating cash flow to rise slightly. But USA and Syfy ratings declined 23 percent and 4 percent year-over-year, respectively.

Meanwhile, film should see higher revenue, but lower cash flow. Lone Survivorand The Best Man Holiday have been among the unit's key recent releases.

Viacom
MTV and Paramount Pictures owner Viacom will report its latest quarterly financials on Thursday.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris recently lowered his U.S. ad revenue growth forecast for the company's latest quarter to 4 percent from 5 percent "due to modestly lower demand and weaker ratings, primarily at MTV." But he raised his international ad forecast to 8 percent from 5 percent, saying he believes that "ad demand at European networks continues to improve."

Overall, that will allow the company to post results in line with Wall Street expectations and its own guidance.

Morris also raised his film unit revenue forecast for the latest quarter "to reflect the solid theatrical results of Anchorman 2 and The Wolf of Wall Street."

Time Warner
Time Warner will continue earnings season for big entertainment companies early on Feb. 5.

The firm's film unit results are expected to be strong thanks to the box-office performance of Gravity and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

A new Batman video game will also boost the quarterly profit at the film unit, which is expected to post one of its biggest quarters ever. That could also have boosted Warner Bros. to have its most profitable year ever, management has said.

"We see a combination of a softer scatter market and weaker ratings – CNN down as expected given political comps, but TNT, Cartoon, and TruTV also down," Morris predicted for the fourth-quarter TV networks unit. He recently lowered his TV networks U.S. ad growth forecast for the latest quarter from 5 percent to 2 percent.

"Management’s 2014 outlook will be key to the fourth-quarter earnings call," said Morris. "With the Time Inc. spin-off still on track for 2014, we anticipate an outlook to focus on networks (we expect high-single-digit affiliate revenue and program cost growth) and film (2014 operating profit similar to 2013)."

Walt Disney
Walt Disney's latest earnings report is scheduled to take place after the market close on Feb. 5.

And film results are expected to be strong. Cowen analyst Doug Creutz on Monday increased his film unit profit forecast for the latest quarter, "primarily reflecting an upward revision to our studio entertainment segment estimates, driven by the strong box office performances turned in by Frozen and Thor: The Dark World."

Echoed Morris: "We expect the studio to be strong, while networks could see a timing benefit from lower revenue deferral."

Stifel, Nicolaus analyst Drew Crum predicts that cable networks revenue growth and unchanged broadcast unit revenue along with the shutdown of ESPN UK will help drive overall media networks higher for the quarter.

21st Century Fox
Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox is set to unveil its latest financials on Feb. 6.

Higher programming spending for new cable networks, such as Fox Sports 1 and FXX, will be a drag on cable networks unit profitability growth, according to Nathanson. That will mean a gain of only 1 percent despite solid advertising and affiliate fee revenue growth.

Higher expenses will also mostly offset advertising revenue growth in the broadcast TV segment, with the analyst now projecting a bigger film unit drop than previously.

Said Nathanson in a recent report: "We are reducing our film profits given the disappointing performance from Walking With Dinosaurs and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty."

CBS Corp. 
Quarterly earnings season for entertainment conglomerates will wrap up with CBS Corp. on Feb. 12.

Evercore Partners analyst Alan Gould recently reduced his quarterly earnings forecast, raising his corporate expense estimate due to the upcoming separation of the CBS Outdoor business IPO costs and reducing his entertainment and cable networks profit expectations.

"We expect fourth-quarter network advertising revenue growth of 4.4 percent, with local TV station advertising revenue down 10 percent due to tough political comparisons," predicts ISI Media analyst Vijay Jayant.

E-mail: Georg.Szalai@THR.com
Twitter: @georgszalai

［news-Vancuversun]Spielberg was wrong: Hollywood comes back from the dead

Spielberg was wrong: Hollywood comes back from the dead

When Steven Spielberg warned in June that Hollywood was facing a “meltdown” amid a series of major flops, it looked like 2013 would be a dismal year for the movie industry and its biggest stars.

Speaking to students at the University of Southern California, the director of Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark and Schindler’s List spoke somewhat apocalyptically about an impending “implosion” with “mega-budget movies crashing into the ground”.

But it seems the man who in many ways shaped the modern blockbuster may have been too hasty. Six months later, Hollywood expects a record year at the box office.

“The summer had a lot of high-profile big-budget flops that didn’t live up to expectations, but when you look at the bottom line it’s still a record breaker,” said Paul Dergarabedian, a Hollywood box office analyst.

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was an important one. There was really bad weather on the east coast, but it still did over $70 million in its opening weekend.”

When Spielberg spoke, Hollywood was in the midst of an unprecedented crisis as six films each with a production budget of over $100 million fell flat in as many weeks.

The highest profile casualty was The Lone Ranger which cost $250 million to make, plus a huge marketing budget. It lost the Disney studio up to $190 million and critics savaged the performance of Johnny Depp, the previously bankable actor. Another A-list star, Will Smith, also failed with the science fiction epic After Earth, prompting the Wall Street Journal to ask if the actor had “undergone a radical charisma-ectomy”.

The disastrous reception appeared to undermine Hollywood studios’ “tent pole” strategy of pouring most of their resources into a small number of would-be summer blockbusters.

“There was a lot of attention this summer given to blockbusters failing and pulling Hollywood down,” said Patrick Corcoran, the director of media and research at the National Association of Theater Owners.

“There were movies not playing well. But while that was happening we had five straight weeks taking over $300 million, which has never happened before.”

That was down to unheralded films such as The Conjuring, a horror story, which cost $20 million and had no big name stars, but gained popularity through word of mouth and social networking.

Corcoran said: “It showed people are willing to go to the movies if you give them something good to see.”

He added that November had been “huge” with two films — The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and the animated Frozen, becoming the two biggest Thanksgiving releases ever.

The annual box office record in North America, set last year, was $10.772 billion. It may fall to the Christmas release, Saving Mr. Banks, starring Emma Thompson as P L Travers, author of Mary Poppins, to push Hollywood to new heights.

Dergarabedian said: “We’re in a horse race but I think we’re going to wind up exceeding $10.8 billion. There’s so many cool movies out there - 12 Years a Slave, Dallas Buyers Club, American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks — that’s why you get great box office.”

[News-The Economists] Cinema economics: Bigger on the inside

慘慘慘，電影院持續衰退，終至轉型（這裡說是變成電玩間或餐廳），應該很快就會被看到了。

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21590931-now-showing-your-local-cinema-operas-circuses-and-television-shows-bigger-inside

Cinema economics: Bigger on the inside

Nov 30th 2013 | NEW YORK | From the print edition

“WHOVIANS” habitually sit on the sofa—or hide behind it—to watch their favourite time-traveller battle Daleks, Cybermen, Zygons and other monsters. But on November 23rd thousands of them, all around the world, settled into cinema seats to see “Doctor Who” in 3D. The 50th-anniversary episode of the British television show was screened on 800 big screens in 20 countries at the same time as being broadcast on the BBC’s channels.

[News] 紐西蘭退稅迎阿凡達

紐西蘭政府以退稅招來Fox Entertainment和J. Cameron，條件是簽署長期合作與本地製作投資協定。

New 'Avatar' Trilogy to Be Filmed in New Zealand
5:22 PM PST 12/15/2013 by Pip Bulbeck

New Zealand is set to move from being the "home of Middle-earth," as it has become known with The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings films, to "the place where Pandora was brought to life."

[News-THR] Music Industry Contributes $5.7 Billion to U.K. Economy, Report Finds

按英國材料，音樂唱片業的經濟貢獻，第一是工作者（詞曲創作、歌手、製作人…），第二是現場演出，第三是唱片，第四是音樂出版。

然而相關統計是首次揭露？

Homegrown stars, such as Adele and Emeli Sande, enhance Britain's brand and reputation abroad by an estimated $118 million, according to industry group UK Music.

[News-THR] Film London Recruits Executive to Attract Investment

The U.K. government agency, led by Adrian Wootton, has brought in David Shepheard to head up efforts to entice productions from Hollywood and beyond to shoot in the British capital.

[News]影視產業集團13年營收回顧與來年展望

來自THR的報導。一切都好，CBS, 21th Century Fox, Time Warner都是outperform。除了有線電視付費頻道的訂戶數還在衰退是不利因素，全球廣告量、新興市場、新付費通路都還在高速成長中。

其中有段有趣的是：Jayant and Joyce predict cable network segment operating profit could rise 3 percent for the quarter, while broadcasting could record a 5 percent improvement due to retransmission fees and reverse compensation revenue.

所謂的retransmission fee，指的是無線電視網無線電視台收費，而無線電視台跟轉播訊號的有線電視平台收費，等於是分了有線電視高成長的果實。

[Murmur] Chavez 榮登Hollywood 2013 仙逝名人堂？！

THR在首頁上放了個2013年好萊塢仙逝名人堂，收入今年掛掉的重要產業名人肖像，線上線下（above and under the line）都有，讓鄉民可以一頁一頁翻著看。

翻到第39位時忽然跑出查維茲。XD

[Murmur] 用Endnote app for ios的請不要任意更新帳號密碼

20131103更新：Endnote app發佈更新版，這問題已解決鳥~

不然你ios device上的文獻資料會被清空，像上面每一筆重新同步後的文獻，原本夾帶的pdf檔全沒了留在cloud端。

[Analysis]電影製作基金向誰要？

據報載，文化部為了要挹注台灣電影製作投資，打算就電影票房課徵5%的新稅，辦法還沒定案。部長龍應台說法國政府從電影票房拿了11%走補助電影，台灣戲院卻可以享拿票房的5%折抵營業稅的優待，不合比例，所以要討回來。

[Analysis]關於資訊社會的開始 The beginning of Information Society

-Source: BEA
如圖上文字所示，GDP構成裡面的民間投資項，有子項為資訊處理設備。這一項的投資到了七○年代後開始爆炸性的增長。

[News] some old news about the recessino in US video industries

總體經濟衰退的時候，誰都跑不掉。不過據說有一個部門沒在怕的，那就是電視電影業。一直以來好萊塢被認為是可以在衰退中持盈保泰的部門，理由不外乎是消費者的娛樂支出相對不受景氣影響。曾經有很長一段時間，電影票便宜到是窮人和有錢人共享的娛樂活動（雖然有時間先後的差別），電視則是比水龍頭還厲害插上電開關打開就有得看又不用繳費。雖然現在電影票貴了，電視接上付費頻道後也是一直讓人掏錢，不過消費者成癮的閱聽習慣似乎一樣讓電視電影業不受衰退影響。

[News] app of US Census Bureau

Obama與共和黨的債務協商吵完後，美國政府終於重新開張，統計局網站也再次上線鳥。剛一連上發現首頁跳出app安裝提醒，二話不說馬上下載安裝。

[Opinion]積極進取的相反？公視近年製作偏向的觀察

公共電視的新任董事會近年幾經政治周折一再難產，文化部長以「國際笑話」稱之。不過作為觀眾，恐怕不容易從每日看電視的經驗裡感受到高層的政治問題。新董事會難產的934天中，公視整個組織運作一派如常，沒有播出半刻的黑畫面。最近的《2012年公視基金會年度報告》裡甚至指出公視新製節目時數是歷年之冠，是報告開頭董事長與總經理的談話中頗值得驕人的成績。

[Opinion]何以補貼「旗艦」計畫？

文化部今年度補助唱片業的名單一出，又引起業界一陣嘩然。其中福茂唱片的陳妍希因為演唱藝齡尚淺，最受批評。